Four Minutes Before Impact!
On December 31, 2024 I wrote the post, a Sad End to 2024, and I speculated what I thought happened with the December 29, Jeju crash, based upon the facts we knew. They were fast, they did not extend flaps, no gear, and no communication beyond a Mayday, and go around, and we know they were not incapacitated because they turned and landed on the centerline of a runway in the opposite direction, but sadly they hit a wall. But that wall in any other city could have saved lives, and these pilots had the ability to avoid it. Why didn't they?
Some people went on attack because they did not want me to speculate and said we had to wait for the black box. I even received a death threat. But I spoke out early for a reason, so we would not have a repeat event like we did with the second Max crash. I hoped through intelligent discussions we could impart wisdom on pilots without experience and inadequate training. I also believed this event was due to lack of training, and the reason for the pilots reaction, and perhaps controlling agencies would look into that.
I also speculated that we may
never hear what is on that black box.
I was correct about the black box. As it turns out, the right engine was also still producing power, therefore there is no reason that it "stopped working". Do we now speculate what happened to the black box? Do we speculate why Jeju "says " the black box stopped working 4 minutes before impact? Do you think there could be something on that recording they do not want the world to hear? Now do we speculate what happened on this flight or just throw up our hands and stick our heads in the sand, because speculation is apparently a dirty word to some, as is panic.
As I was looking for others who were expressing their opinions this morning, I found a great video that discussed the impact of fatigue, as this flight was a red-eye, and most definitely attributed to the outcome. The best question the pilot asks is why did they not just continue and land after the bird strike? That's what I trained my pilots to do back in the day.
Then why did the captain make a right turn for returning, when he was in the left seat? Mike Rocket Blackstone shares some great advice for pilots who might not anticipate what could happen when shit happens. He also notices that the right engine was in reverse, therefore operating and the gear could have been extended. Why wasn't it? The right engine that hit birds still had thrust. He believes that they may have shutdown the wrong engine, which is a common thought for those willing to discuss the accident. Then he asks why not aim away from the wall and veer off? Good thought.
These are all really good discussion topics, and things to think about. If you have not watched this video, I highly recommend it. The title states, "Many Pilot Errors..." therefore, those sensitive pilots who cannot imagine a pilot making an error, might feel disturbed when they realize the many pilot errors that likely caused this accident. My concern is why they made the errors, because that is what can be addressed.
"Startle Factor!"
"Why didn't they....?"
I still contend
that the pilots panicked.
PANIC: noun
Sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety,
often causing wildly unthinking behavior.
Check out the video above as this is the most articulate analysis I have watched. And now, this is all we have to go on, because... we do not have a black box. Which, yes...it's actually orange. So now... what are you going to do... Speculate?
Karlene K Petitt
PhD. MBA. MHS.
A350, B777, A330, B747-400, B747-200, B767, B757, B737, B727
A350, B777, A330, B747-400, B747-200, B767, B757, B737, B727
