Results in the Lion Air Crash?
I'm receiving many emails and comments from people who participated in my research in response to the Lion Air accident. Now the FAA reports that the airspeed indicator was the problem. The update is that they may have had a runaway stabilizer as a result of. As we all know, technology is not infallible and components will break. However, pilots should know how to fly.
The question is, why couldn't they fly their aircraft?
"Can we agree that any captain should be able to maintain aircraft control using standby instruments and power, safely fly an ILS on radar vectors, and land without incident..."
"I'll be very surprised if there was something mechanically wrong about this airplane that made it un-flyable. I hate to think that it was pilot error, but that's exactly what I will expect to hear. I hope to be proven wrong."
My research is complete!
Thanks to pilots worldwide who cared enough to assist in this research. I had 7490 pilots respond. While some surveys were incomplete, and some aircraft did not have autopilot, autothrust, or an EICAS, those were removed from the structural equation model (SEM), but all data was gathered to evaluate opinions. The final data analysis (SEM) was with 5661 surveys. I only needed 1599 to validate the model.
What the results identified was that statistically aircraft and systems understanding has the greatest and positive impact on a pilots willingness to fly their aircraft. Statistically pilot training has the greatest impact on the level of understanding. That pilot training has a negative impact on pilots choice to manually fly their aircraft. Meaning the more training the pilot has, the the less the pilot is willing to fly their aircraft. Safety Culture has the greatest impact on pilot training. And finally when a mediating hypothesis was analyzed to see the impact of Safety Culture on Pilot Training and how that impacted a pilots willingness to manually fly, we found a negative relationship. I think my stats guru best explains this relationship with his statement:
"Wow! Safety Culture is sucking
the benefit out of pilot training!"
Pilot error does not happen in isolation. If pilots are not given the tools to do the job, then what can we expect when the aircraft breaks?
I believe we found the underlying variables
contributing to pilot error:
Safety Culture and Pilot Training.
Two things that are fixable.
Hopefully that will be sooner than later.
My dissertation is in the final review phase now. As soon as it is approved and published, I will update the research website and provide a link to the full dissertation for everyone. Standby for a book from this research as well, that will be a gift to all participants!
Thank you for caring enough to participate
in the interest of safety!
Enjoy the Journey!