Four Minutes Before Impact!
On December 31, 2024 I wrote the post, a Sad End to 2024, and I speculated what I thought happened with the December 29, Jeju crash, based upon the facts we knew. They were fast, they did not extend flaps, no gear, and no communication beyond a Mayday, and go around, and we know they were not incapacitated because they turned and landed on the centerline of a runway in the opposite direction, but sadly they hit a wall. But that wall in any other city could have saved lives, and these pilots had the ability to avoid it. Why didn't they?
Some people went on attack because they did not want me to speculate and said we had to wait for the black box. I even received a death threat. But I spoke out early for a reason, so we would not have a repeat event like we did with the second Max crash. I hoped through intelligent discussions we could impart wisdom on pilots without experience and inadequate training. I also believed this event was due to lack of training, and the reason for the pilots reaction, and perhaps controlling agencies would look into that.
I also speculated that we may
never hear what is on that black box.
I was correct about the black box. As it turns out, the right engine was also still producing power, therefore there is no reason that it "stopped working". Do we now speculate what happened to the black box? Do we speculate why Jeju "says " the black box stopped working 4 minutes before impact? Do you think there could be something on that recording they do not want the world to hear? Now do we speculate what happened on this flight or just throw up our hands and stick our heads in the sand, because speculation is apparently a dirty word to some, as is panic.
As I was looking for others who were expressing their opinions this morning, I found a great video that discussed the impact of fatigue, as this flight was a red-eye, and most definitely attributed to the outcome. The best question the pilot asks is why did they not just continue and land after the bird strike? That's what I trained my pilots to do back in the day.
Then why did the captain make a right turn for returning, when he was in the left seat? Mike Rocket Blackstone shares some great advice for pilots who might not anticipate what could happen when shit happens. He also notices that the right engine was in reverse, therefore operating and the gear could have been extended. Why wasn't it? The right engine that hit birds still had thrust. He believes that they may have shutdown the wrong engine, which is a common thought for those willing to discuss the accident. Then he asks why not aim away from the wall and veer off? Good thought.
These are all really good discussion topics, and things to think about. If you have not watched this video, I highly recommend it. The title states, "Many Pilot Errors..." therefore, those sensitive pilots who cannot imagine a pilot making an error, might feel disturbed when they realize the many pilot errors that likely caused this accident. My concern is why they made the errors, because that is what can be addressed.
"Startle Factor!"
"Why didn't they....?"
I still contend
that the pilots panicked.
PANIC: noun
Sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety,
often causing wildly unthinking behavior.
Check out the video above as this is the most articulate analysis I have watched. And now, this is all we have to go on, because... we do not have a black box. Which, yes...it's actually orange. So now... what are you going to do... Speculate?
Karlene K Petitt
PhD. MBA. MHS.
A350, B777, A330, B747-400, B747-200, B767, B757, B737, B727
A350, B777, A330, B747-400, B747-200, B767, B757, B737, B727
Karlene, you and I know the recorders are designed to work even in case of the total aircraft electrical power.
ReplyDeleteAs for the ill fated Go-Around, the only reason for this unwise decision I can imagine is extreme FATIGUE, the "silent killer!"
Fatigue is a silent killer. I initially thought they were asleep, until I saw they had gone around. Delta had a B757, where both pilots fell asleep and gear horn awoke the first officer, or they would have burred that into the runway. But these two were wide awake... albeit. after a long night of flying. Looks like the right engine was at least still running, and there was also a back up battery. So, to say it stopped recording 4 minutes prior to the crash...hmmm... means it just stopped recording while they were still flying. That is hard to believe.
DeleteI totally agree, lack of handling
ReplyDeleteemergency (s) situations no matter how experienced the pilot(s) is, does the right thing wrong under pressure, panic and aggravate the situation leading to occurrence, incident and accident.
Airmanship, grooming to handle the abnormal situation must be given due respect and emphasis on at least weakly practices reports practicing emergencies of the respective aircraft should be submitted to the safety department of the company working for.
This conclusion forwarding after having flown for more than 30 years
airline flying including B-747and gone through 3 times of real emergences .
Pilots should develop habits to ensure they are well conversant and familiar with their aircraft and Emergency procedures with Confidence.
Have a good day
Yes they should. But sadly many don't. I always reviewed my emergency procedures and thought about what I would do with a double engine failure and ocean crossings, a rapid depressurizations, and even thought about what would I do if I was on final and an engine flamed out, etc.I studied before my flights. But, I do not think that is standard practice. A pilot might go 30 years on the same plane and only do one rapid depressurization during initial training. I do not believe airlines provide adequate training these days, and for pilots to stay on top of their procedures, they must continually think about them, and armchair fly before they fly. But they get lazy and think the worst will never happen to them. Until it does. Thanks for your comment!
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ReplyDeleteYes, the pilots and all those passengers died when they did not need to. Very sad, indeed.
DeleteHere is another hypothesis: The plane was subjected to some kind of EMP* or other electromagnetic disturbance, which impaired much (but not all) of the electronics, including the flight recorder. This caused the right engine to cough (not a bird strike), and disabled the normal mechanism to lower flaps and gear. The sleep-deprived pilots panicked, and forgot that they could manually lower the landing gear.
ReplyDelete*EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weaponry has been under development for decades, recently deployed in Ukraine, and much like manpads it is feared they could be used against civilian aircraft.
That's a theory. But there were birds. And the gear and flaps were down for the first arrival. So, if your EMP caused an engine to cough, they land, configured. There is no reason for a go around. But more so an electromagnetic disturbance would not block the flaps and gear. You can find a 737 systems manual on line and learn how they operate. But if your theory was correct,... then they would not have been able to be raised either. Keep thinking, but this was a series of pilot errors that crashed that plane. Whose fault? Training and lack of regulatory control.
DeleteThe whole incident brings so many questions on the airmanship and indeed the airline in questions training procedures for flightcrew. It is almost like the Korean 777 that crashed on landing at SFO years back where it transpired the crew had no training on landing with the ils inop. This case looks like the crew were perhaps not working as a crew but blindly panicking, creating a situation when a safe landing would have been a viable first option.
ReplyDelete